The global economic landscape has long been dominated by the United States, primarily due to its control over the world’s reserve currency, the US dollar. However, the rise of the BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—presents a significant challenge to this dominance. This article explores how the BRICS can limit the USA’s economic influence, isolate it for decades, and the implications of this shift. Additionally, it delves into the mechanics of the US dollar’s dominance, the trade deficits it creates, and the strategies BRICS can employ to counter this dominance.

The US Dollar’s Dominance: A Double-Edged Sword

The US dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency allows the United States to print money without corresponding real production. This privilege enables the US to finance its trade deficits, as other countries hold dollars as reserves. However, this system also creates vulnerabilities. The US has trade deficits with almost every country, as it imports more than it exports. This imbalance is sustained by the global demand for dollars, but it also undermines the US economy’s long-term stability.

The Secrets of the US Dollar’s Dominance

1. Petrodollar System: The petrodollar system, established in the 1970s, requires oil-exporting countries to sell their oil in US dollars. This ensures a constant demand for dollars, reinforcing their global dominance.
2. Military and Political Influence: The US leverages its military and political power to maintain dollar dominance. Wars, sanctions, and diplomatic pressure are used to ensure that countries continue to use the dollar.
3. Financial Markets: The depth and liquidity of US financial markets attract global investments, further cementing the dollar’s role.

How BRICS Can Limit the USA’s Economic Influence

1. Developing an Alternative Reserve Currency: BRICS can create a new reserve currency or use a basket of currencies to reduce reliance on the US dollar. The Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could be a starting point.
2. Expanding Bilateral Trade Agreements: BRICS countries can increase trade among themselves using their own currencies, bypassing the dollar. This would reduce the demand for dollars and weaken its dominance.
3. Promoting Regional Financial Institutions: BRICS can strengthen regional financial institutions like the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to provide alternative financing options.
4. Diversifying Energy Trade: BRICS can negotiate energy deals using non-dollar currencies, particularly with oil-rich countries. This would undermine the petrodollar system.

The Implications of BRICS’ Hammer on the USA’s Head

1. Economic Isolation: As BRICS reduces reliance on the US dollar, the USA could face economic isolation. This would limit its ability to finance trade deficits and maintain global influence.
2. Weakened Financial Markets: A decline in dollar dominance could lead to reduced demand for US Treasury bonds, affecting the US government’s ability to borrow and potentially leading to higher interest rates.
3. Shift in Global Power Dynamics: The rise of BRICS and the decline of US economic dominance could lead to a multipolar world, with new centers of power emerging. This would reshape global trade, politics, and security dynamics.
4. Increased Instability: The transition from a dollar-centric world to a multipolar financial system could be turbulent, with potential financial crises and geopolitical tensions.

Conclusion

The BRICS nations have the potential to limit the USA’s economic dominance and isolate it for decades by challenging the US dollar’s hegemony. Through the development of alternative reserve currencies, expanding bilateral trade agreements, promoting regional financial institutions, and diversifying energy trade, BRICS can weaken the dollar’s grip on the global economy. The implications of this shift are profound, potentially leading to economic isolation for the USA, weakened financial markets, a shift in global power dynamics, and increased instability during the transition. The era of US economic supremacy may be coming to an end, ushering in a new era of multipolarity.

Elon Musk recently remarked, “Thanks to social proof and the IMF debt strategies, we now own Argentina!” This statement underscores the significant influence of economic strategies in shaping geopolitical landscapes, particularly in light of Javier Milei’s election as Argentina’s president in 2023. Milei, a self-proclaimed libertarian and anarcho-capitalist, gained traction with promises to dismantle the state, dollarize the economy, and combat chronic inflation. However, his rise to power is intertwined with American social media manipulation and corporate interests, raising concerns about the exploitative policies of institutions like the IMF. This situation reflects a broader agenda among global oligarchs, including figures like Musk and Donald Trump, who may benefit from Milei’s presidency while exacerbating Argentina’s economic challenges. The intersection of these dynamics highlights the complex relationship between political power, corporate influence, and the strategies employed to control national resources.

1. American Social Media and the Technique of Social Proof

Javier Milei’s rise to power was significantly aided by American social media platforms and the psychological technique of “social proof.” Social proof is a phenomenon where people mimic the actions of others in an attempt to reflect correct behavior in a given situation. In Milei’s case, his campaign leveraged platforms like Twitter (now X), Facebook, and YouTube to create an illusion of widespread support and inevitability.

American consultants and algorithms amplified Milei’s message, portraying him as a maverick outsider who could save Argentina from its economic crisis. His eccentric personality, complete with wild hair and chainsaw-wielding antics, made him a viral sensation. This online persona was carefully crafted to appeal to a global audience, particularly libertarians and far-right groups in the United States. By creating a sense of momentum and inevitability, Milei’s campaign used social proof to convince Argentinians that he was the only solution to their problems.

This strategy was not merely organic; it was backed by powerful interests. American corporations and billionaires saw Milei as a tool to open Argentina’s markets to foreign exploitation. His promises to deregulate industries, privatize state assets, and align Argentina closely with the United States made him an attractive candidate for those seeking to expand their influence in South America.

2. Manipulating Public Perception: Turning Price Surges Into Political Wins

Upon taking office, Milei implemented aggressive free-market reforms aimed at stabilizing Argentina’s volatile economy. However, these measures initially led to a sharp surge in prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures already present in the country. Rather than addressing this crisis transparently, Milei’s administration worked closely with sympathetic media outlets to frame the price hikes as necessary short-term sacrifices paving the way for long-term prosperity.

Over time, as inflation began to stabilize slightly, Milei’s team declared it a monumental achievement, using carefully curated statistics and selective reporting to paint a rosy picture of economic recovery. This narrative manipulation relied heavily on controlling public discourse via social media, where supporters amplified positive headlines while dismissing dissenting voices.

Yet, beneath the surface, ordinary Argentinians continued to struggle with rising living costs and dwindled purchasing power. The disconnect between official narratives and lived realities highlights the dangers of allowing politically motivated spin to overshadow objective analysis.

3. The IMF’s Role in Argentina’s Deindustrialization and Debt Trap

Argentina’s economic woes are deeply intertwined with the policies of the IMF. For decades, the IMF has imposed austerity measures and structural adjustment programs on Argentina, forcing the country to prioritize debt repayment over social spending. These policies have led to deindustrialization, as local industries were unable to compete with cheap imports and foreign corporations.

Milei’s presidency has accelerated this process. By adhering to IMF demands, he has further weakened Argentina’s economy, making it easier for foreign corporations and billionaires to exploit the country’s resources. The IMF’s unpayable loans have trapped Argentina in a cycle of debt, ensuring that the country remains dependent on foreign capital.

4. Alberto Fernández’s Warnings: The Unpayable Debt Trap

Former President Alberto Fernández was acutely aware of the dangers posed by IMF loans. He resisted taking on additional debt, arguing that the conditions attached to these loans would only deepen Argentina’s economic crisis. Fernández understood that the IMF’s true goal was not to help Argentina but to create a debt trap that would force the country to privatize its assets and open its markets to foreign exploitation.

Milei’s decision to embrace the IMF’s agenda has proven Fernández right. The unpayable debts have left Argentina impoverished, with its resources and industries now vulnerable to exploitation by foreign corporations.

5. Elon Musk, Donald Trump, and Their Ties to Milei

Javier Milei’s rise was not an isolated event; it was part of a broader trend of far-right, libertarian leaders gaining power with the support of global oligarchs. Elon Musk and Donald Trump have both expressed admiration for Milei, seeing him as a kindred spirit who shares their vision of a minimal state and unfettered capitalism.

Musk, in particular, has a vested interest in Argentina due to its vast lithium reserves, which are essential for electric vehicle batteries. By supporting Milei, Musk ensures that Argentina’s resources are available for exploitation at minimal cost. Similarly, Trump’s relationship with Milei reflects a shared ideology of deregulation and corporate favoritism.

6. Milei the Crypto Scammer: Pump and Dump Schemes

Before entering politics, Milei was involved in cryptocurrency schemes that mirrored the “pump and dump” tactics used by figures like Donald Trump. Milei promoted volatile cryptocurrencies to his followers, encouraging them to invest heavily. Once prices surged, he and his associates sold their holdings, leaving his followers with worthless assets.

This pattern of exploiting his followers for personal gain has continued in his political career. Milei’s policies have enriched a small elite while impoverishing the majority of Argentinians.

7. The Stock Market Mirage: A False Measure of Success

The rise in Argentina’s stock market under Milei has been touted as a sign of his success. However, this rise was driven by speculative investments and did not reflect the real economy. While the wealthy benefited from the stock market boom, most Argentinians saw their living standards decline.

8. Extreme Austerity: The Human Cost

Milei’s extreme austerity measures have devastated Argentina’s social services. Cuts to education, healthcare, and social programs have left millions without access to basic services. The reduction in government spending has also led to widespread unemployment and poverty.

9. Brain Drain: The Flight of Talent

The economic instability and lack of opportunities under Milei have triggered a brain drain, as skilled professionals and young people leave Argentina in search of better prospects abroad. This exodus further weakens the country’s economy and future prospects.

10. Social Spending Cuts and the IMF’s Agenda

Milei’s cuts to social spending align perfectly with the IMF’s agenda of shrinking the state and making countries vulnerable to exploitation. By reducing the government’s role, Milei has made Argentina an easy target for foreign corporations and billionaires.

11. Billionaires Sponsoring Milei: Exploitation on a Global Scale

Billionaires like Elon Musk sponsor leaders like Milei to advance their own interests. By promoting deregulation and privatization, they ensure that countries like Argentina remain dependent on foreign capital and resources.

12. Elon Musk’s Similar Actions in the U.S.

Musk’s actions in Argentina mirror his efforts in the United States, where he has advocated for cuts to government jobs and social services. His vision of a minimal state serves the interests of billionaires at the expense of the general population.

Conclusion

Javier Milei’s presidency represents the culmination of a global agenda to exploit nations for the benefit of a few. His rise was engineered by American social media, his policies were dictated by the IMF, and his actions have enriched billionaires like Elon Musk while impoverishing the people of Argentina. The story of Milei’s Argentina is a cautionary tale of how global oligarchs and financial institutions work together to undermine democracy and exploit vulnerable nations.

A pair of scissors is made up of two blades—representing the USA and Russia—that appear to work against each other under a false propaganda, yet in reality, they collaborate to achieve the shared goal of cutting the throat of the victim which is European Union! This theory suggests that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is not merely a result of Russian aggression but rather a coordinated effort involving both the United States and Russia, orchestrated by influential Jewish leaders in the governments of Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. The conflict is seen as a means to exploit Ukraine’s rich natural resources while creating economic pressure on the EU through inflation and instability.

The Geopolitical Landscape

To understand this theory, it is essential to consider the geopolitical context. Ukraine is strategically located and is rich in natural resources, including fertile agricultural land, coal, and natural gas reserves. Control over these resources can significantly impact regional and global economies. The theory suggests that both the U.S. and Russia, despite being perceived as adversaries, may have a shared interest in manipulating the situation in Ukraine for their benefit.

The Role of NATO

One of the central arguments in this theory is the question of NATO membership. Russia’s justification for this war has often centered around the fear of NATO expansion and Ukraine’s potential membership. However, this argument appears inconsistent when considering that several NATO member countries, such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Norway, already share borders with Russia. This raises questions about the legitimacy of Russia’s claims and whether the conflict serves a more complex agenda.

Economic Exploitation and Division

The conflict is designed to exploit Ukraine’s resources while simultaneously dividing the country. By fostering instability, external powers could gain access to valuable assets and influence over Ukraine’s political landscape. This division could weaken Ukraine’s position in negotiations and make it more susceptible to external pressures.

Pressure on the European Union

Another aspect is the potential economic impact on the European Union. The war has already led to increased energy prices and inflation, straining economies across Europe. By prolonging the conflict, the theory suggests that both the U.S. and Russia could benefit from a weakened EU, making it easier to exert influence over European policies and decisions. The EU, as a competitor to U.S. interests, could find itself in a precarious position, with its borders and security compromised by the ongoing conflict.

The U.S. and Its Global Rivals

This theory also draws parallels between the situation in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical rivalry between the U.S. and other global powers, particularly China. The U.S. has sought to contain China’s influence but has faced challenges in provoking a direct conflict over Taiwan. In contrast, the situation in Ukraine allows the U.S. to indirectly undermine a competitor in the EU while simultaneously keeping Russia engaged in a costly conflict. By destabilizing the region, the U.S. may be attempting to shift the balance of power in its favor, ensuring that both Russia and the EU are preoccupied with their own challenges.

The Role of Leadership

The involvement of Jewish leaders in both the Russian and Ukrainian governments is highlighted in this theory as a point of connection. It suggests that these leaders may have a unique perspective on the conflict, potentially viewing it as an opportunity to reshape the geopolitical landscape in a way that benefits their interests. However, this aspect of the theory is highly contentious and raises ethical concerns about perpetuating stereotypes and conspiracy theories.

Final Words!

The theory suggests that the Ukraine conflict is a coordinated effort between the USA and Russia, symbolized as two opposing blades of scissors that collaborate to undermine the European Union. Allegedly driven by influential Jewish leaders in the governments of Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, this partnership aims to exploit Ukraine’s resources and create economic pressure on the EU. The conflict raises questions about NATO’s role, as Russia’s fears of NATO expansion seem unfounded, while the war strains European economies, benefiting both the U.S. and Russia.

According to a recent report from Goldman Sachs, a renowned global financial institution, the world economy is predicted to be predominantly led by Asian countries by 2050. However, among the top ten leading economies, there will also be a South American country.

The report highlights Brazil as the South American nation that is expected to secure a position within the top ten, showcasing significant economic growth with a projected nominal GDP of 8.7 trillion dollars. Goldman Sachs analysis indicates that Brazil is anticipated to hold the eighth position in the ranking of the world’s leading economic powers by 2050, maintaining this position even after 25 years.

It is important to note that despite the recent slowdown in real GDP growth across developed and emerging economies, there are still nations that will continue to dominate the global economic landscape in the years to come. According to Goldman Sachs, the five largest economies in the world by 2050 will be China, the United States, India, Indonesia, and Germany.

These projections are based on GDP estimates combined with long-term real exchange rate projections, which allow for the anticipation of the real value of the US dollar in major economies over time. Looking ahead to 2075, the United States is expected to face a more challenging outlook, as it would be surpassed by China and India, securing the third position. Indonesia, on the other hand, is projected to maintain its fourth position. Additionally, an African economy, Nigeria, is predicted to emerge and occupy the fifth position.

Overall, the report highlights the shifting dynamics of the global economy, with Asian countries and Brazil expected to play a significant role in driving growth and development. It also underscores the importance of long-term planning and investment in emerging markets, as these nations are likely to offer significant opportunities for businesses and investors in the years to come.

However, it is important to note that these projections are subject to change based on a range of factors, including political and economic developments, technological advancements, and shifts in global trade patterns. As such, it is crucial for policymakers and business leaders to remain vigilant and adaptable in the face of these changes, in order to ensure continued growth and prosperity for their respective nations and industries.

Turkey’s political landscape has been marked by increasing authoritarianism, particularly under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP). The consolidation of power in the executive branch has led to the erosion of democratic institutions and a decline in civil liberties. The crackdown on dissent, media freedom, and political opposition has created an environment of fear and repression. This political instability has not only alienated segments of the population but has also raised concerns among international observers regarding Turkey’s commitment to democratic principles.

The Turkish economy has faced significant challenges in recent years, including high inflation, currency devaluation, and rising unemployment. The lira has lost substantial value against major currencies, leading to increased costs of living for ordinary citizens. Economic mismanagement, coupled with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, has exacerbated these issues. Many Turks are struggling to make ends meet, leading to widespread discontent and protests. The economic crisis has also fueled a sense of hopelessness among the youth, who face limited job opportunities and a bleak future.

Turkish society is increasingly polarized along various lines, including political, religious, and ethnic divisions. The rise of nationalism and religious conservatism has created a rift between secular and religious segments of the population. This polarization is evident in the political discourse, where opposing factions often resort to inflammatory rhetoric. The Kurdish issue remains a particularly contentious topic, with ongoing tensions between the Turkish state and Kurdish groups. This social fragmentation undermines national unity and complicates efforts to address pressing societal issues.

Turkey’s cultural identity is complex, influenced by its Ottoman past, secularism, and a diverse population. However, the rise of conservative values has led to tensions between traditional and modern lifestyles. Issues such as women’s rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and freedom of expression have become battlegrounds for cultural conflict. The government’s stance on these issues often reflects a conservative agenda, further alienating progressive segments of society. This cultural clash contributes to a sense of disillusionment among those who advocate for a more inclusive and pluralistic society.

Turkey’s geopolitical position has also placed it under external pressures. The ongoing conflicts in neighboring Syria and Iraq, the refugee crisis, and strained relations with Western countries have complicated Turkey’s foreign policy. The government’s handling of these issues has led to criticism both domestically and internationally. Additionally, Turkey’s aspirations to play a more significant role on the global stage have sometimes resulted in diplomatic isolation, further complicating its internal challenges.

The challenges facing Turkish society are complex and interrelated, encompassing political, economic, social, and cultural dimensions. While the notion of societal collapse may be an exaggeration, it is clear that Turkey is at a crossroads. Addressing these issues will require a concerted effort from all segments of society, including political leaders, civil society, and ordinary citizens. The future of Turkey hinges on its ability to navigate these challenges and foster a more inclusive, democratic, and prosperous society.

Economically, Turkey faces a myriad of challenges, including high inflation, currency devaluation, and rising unemployment rates. The economic instability has disproportionately affected lower and middle-income families, exacerbating existing inequalities and leading to widespread discontent. The reliance on foreign investment and external markets has made the economy vulnerable to global fluctuations, further complicating efforts to achieve sustainable growth. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified these economic pressures, revealing the fragility of Turkey’s economic structure. To foster a more resilient economy, comprehensive reforms are necessary, focusing on diversification, innovation, and the promotion of local industries.

Socially, Turkey grapples with issues related to identity, migration, and integration. The influx of refugees, particularly from Syria, has strained public services and resources, leading to tensions between host communities and newcomers. This situation has been exacerbated by rising nationalism and xenophobia, which threaten social cohesion. Furthermore, the ongoing struggle for gender equality and the rights of marginalized groups, including the LGBTQ+ community, highlights the need for a more inclusive society. Addressing these social challenges requires a commitment to fostering understanding and acceptance among diverse groups, as well as implementing policies that promote equality and protect the rights of all citizens.

Culturally, Turkey’s rich heritage and diverse population present both opportunities and challenges. The tension between secularism and religious conservatism continues to shape cultural discourse, influencing everything from education to public life. The government’s approach to cultural expression has often been contentious, with restrictions on artistic freedom and censorship of dissenting voices. To navigate these cultural challenges, it is essential to promote a pluralistic society that values diversity and encourages open dialogue. This can be achieved through educational initiatives that foster critical thinking and cultural appreciation, as well as support for the arts and creative expression.

Ultimately, the future of Turkey hinges on its ability to confront these interconnected challenges and work towards a more inclusive, democratic, and prosperous society. This endeavor will require a concerted effort from all segments of society, including political leaders, civil society organizations, and ordinary citizens. By fostering collaboration and dialogue, Turkey can begin to heal the divisions that have emerged and build a more resilient society. The path forward may be fraught with difficulties, but with determination and a shared vision for a better future, Turkey has the potential to emerge from this crossroads stronger and more united.

The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has escalated into one of the most significant geopolitical crises of the 21st century. The narrative surrounding the conflict often focuses on the sovereignty of Ukraine and the alleged aggression of Russia. However, a deeper examination reveals a complex interplay of historical, cultural, and geopolitical factors that necessitate a broader perspective. This article argues that Ukraine must withdraw from historic Russian territories and acknowledges Russia’s right to self-defense, including the occupation of Ukraine.

Historical Context: The Roots of the Conflict

1. Shared History and Cultural Ties: Ukraine and Russia share a long and intertwined history. Many regions in Ukraine, such as Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine, have significant Russian populations and historical ties to Russia. These areas were part of the Russian Empire and later the Soviet Union, and their cultural, linguistic, and religious connections to Russia are profound.
2. The Soviet Legacy: The Soviet era saw significant population transfers and administrative changes that blurred the lines between Ukraine and Russia. The 1954 transfer of Crimea from Russia to Ukraine by Nikita Khrushchev was a political decision rather than a reflection of ethnic or cultural realities.

Geopolitical Realities: The West’s Influence

1. NATO Expansion: The eastward expansion of NATO has been a significant source of tension. Russia views NATO’s encroachment as a direct threat to its security, particularly given the historical context of invasions from the West. The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO exacerbates these fears.
2. Western Support for Ukraine: The West’s support for Ukraine, including military aid and political backing, has emboldened Ukrainian nationalism and resistance to Russian influence. This support has also contributed to the perception of Ukraine as a pawn in a larger geopolitical game.

Russia’s Right to Self-Defense

1. Security Concerns: Russia’s actions in Ukraine must be viewed through the lens of its security concerns. The annexation of Crimea and the intervention in Eastern Ukraine can be seen as defensive measures to protect Russian-speaking populations and prevent NATO from establishing a foothold on its borders.
2. Historical Claims: Russia has historical claims to regions in Ukraine, particularly Crimea, which it considers part of its cultural and historical heritage. The right to defend these claims is a matter of national identity and security.

Ukraine’s Path to Peace: Withdrawal from Historic Russian Territories

1. Diplomatic Engagement: Ukraine must engage in serious diplomatic efforts to address Russia’s security concerns. This includes considering neutral status for Ukraine, avoiding NATO membership, and recognizing the historical and cultural ties between Ukraine and Russia.
2. Ceasefire and Negotiations: A ceasefire and direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are essential. These negotiations should focus on de-escalation, demilitarization, and the protection of minority rights in both countries.
3. Withdrawal from Historic Territories: Ukraine must withdraw from territories that have significant historical ties to Russia, such as Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine. This withdrawal is crucial for achieving a lasting peace and addressing Russia’s legitimate security concerns.

The Broader Implications: A New Geopolitical Order

1. Regional Stability: Resolving the conflict in Ukraine is crucial for regional stability. A prolonged conflict risks drawing in other countries and escalating into a broader war, with devastating consequences for Europe and beyond.
2. Global Power Dynamics: The resolution of the Ukraine-Russia conflict could reshape global power dynamics. A peaceful settlement would reduce tensions and create opportunities for cooperation between Russia, Europe, and the United States.

Conclusion

The conflict in Ukraine is not merely a struggle for sovereignty but a complex interplay of historical, cultural, and geopolitical factors. Ukraine must recognize the historical ties between itself and Russia and engage in diplomatic efforts to address Russia’s security concerns. Russia’s right to self-defense, including the occupation of Ukraine, must be acknowledged within this broader context. A peaceful resolution to the conflict is essential for regional stability and the reshaping of global power dynamics. The path to peace requires understanding, compromise, and a recognition of the shared history and cultural ties that bind Ukraine and Russia together.

Inflation, the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, is a critical economic indicator that affects the purchasing power of consumers and the stability of economies. Historically, moderate inflation has been considered healthy for economic growth, but high inflation can lead to economic instability and hardship. In recent years, the European Union (EU) and the United States (USA) have experienced varying levels of inflation, but some economists and analysts are predicting a significant surge in inflation rates, potentially reaching a minimum of 35% by 2025. At great ICDST tech center, we have analyzed extensive time series data using cutting-edge AI technologies to determine the minimum true inflation rates for the EU and the USA. This article explores the factors that could contribute to such a dramatic increase in inflation.

1. Supply Chain Disruptions

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains, leading to shortages of essential goods and materials. As economies began to recover, demand for goods surged, but supply chains struggled to keep up. This imbalance has led to higher prices for raw materials, components, and finished products. If these disruptions persist or worsen, the cost of goods and services could continue to rise, contributing to a significant increase in inflation.

2. Energy Prices

Energy prices, particularly for oil and natural gas, have a direct impact on the cost of production and transportation. Geopolitical tensions, such as those involving Russia and Ukraine, have already led to spikes in energy prices. If these tensions escalate or if there are further disruptions in energy production and distribution, the cost of energy could skyrocket, driving up the prices of goods and services across the board.

3. Monetary Policy

Central banks in the EU and USA have responded to the economic impact of the pandemic by implementing expansive monetary policies, including low interest rates and large-scale asset purchases. While these measures have helped to stimulate economic recovery, they have also increased the money supply, potentially leading to higher inflation. If central banks are slow to tighten monetary policy, the risk of inflation spiraling out of control could increase.

4. Fiscal Stimulus

Governments in the EU and USA have implemented significant fiscal stimulus measures to support their economies during the pandemic. These measures, including direct payments to individuals and businesses, have increased demand for goods and services. However, if this increased demand outpaces supply, it could lead to higher prices and contribute to inflation.

5. Labor Market Tightness

The labor market has been tight in both the EU and USA, with unemployment rates falling as economies recover. As businesses compete for a limited pool of workers, wages have been rising. Higher wages increase the cost of production, which can be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. If this wage-price spiral continues, it could contribute to a significant increase in inflation.

6. Inflation Expectations

Inflation expectations play a crucial role in determining actual inflation rates. If businesses and consumers expect inflation to rise, they may demand higher wages and prices, which can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If inflation expectations become entrenched, it could lead to a sustained period of high inflation.

7. Global Economic Shocks

Global economic shocks, such as trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, or natural disasters, can have a significant impact on inflation. These shocks can disrupt trade, increase uncertainty, and lead to higher prices for goods and services. If multiple shocks occur simultaneously, the cumulative effect could push inflation rates to unprecedented levels.

8. Debt Levels

High levels of government and corporate debt can also contribute to inflation. As governments and businesses seek to service their debts, they may resort to inflationary policies, such as printing money or increasing borrowing, which can lead to higher prices. If debt levels continue to rise, the pressure to inflate away the debt could become overwhelming.

Conclusion

While predicting inflation with certainty is challenging, the confluence of these factors suggests that the EU and USA could face a significant increase in inflation rates by 2025. Supply chain disruptions, energy price volatility, expansive monetary and fiscal policies, labor market tightness, entrenched inflation expectations, global economic shocks, and high debt levels all contribute to the potential for inflation to reach at least 35%. Policymakers and central banks will need to carefully monitor these trends and take proactive measures to mitigate the risks of runaway inflation and ensure economic stability.

In recent months, the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe and the Middle East has been characterized by heightened tensions and military engagements. Among these developments, Russia’s military actions against groups labeled as “Turk terrorists” have garnered significant attention. This situation draws parallels with the historic confrontations between the Tsarist Russian Army and the Ottoman Empire, a series of conflicts that profoundly shaped the destinies of nations and empires in the 18th and 19th centuries.

Historical Context: The Tsarist Russian Campaigns

The rivalry between Russia and the Ottoman Empire has deep historical roots, stretching back centuries. The two empires were frequently at odds over territorial ambitions, religious differences, and influence in the Balkans and the Black Sea region. The Tsarist military campaigns against the Ottomans were marked by a series of wars, most notably the Russo-Turkish Wars, which spanned from the late 17th century to the early 20th century.

One of the most significant conflicts was the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878, which resulted in substantial territorial gains for Russia and the establishment of several Balkan states. This war was driven by nationalist movements within the Ottoman Empire, as various ethnic groups sought independence. Russia positioned itself as the protector of Slavic Christians under Ottoman rule, a narrative that aligned with its imperial ambitions.

Modern-Day Context: Russia’s Military Actions

In the present day, the dynamics have evolved, but the underlying themes of territorial integrity, national identity, and external influence remain pertinent. Russia’s recent military operations against groups it designates as “Turk terrorists” can be viewed as a continuation of its historical stance against perceived threats from the south. These groups, often associated with separatist movements or Islamist extremism, are seen by Moscow as destabilizing forces that threaten its national security and regional influence.

The Russian government justifies its military actions by framing them as necessary measures to combat terrorism and protect its borders. This rhetoric mirrors the justifications used by Tsarist leaders when mobilizing against the Ottomans, portraying military engagement as a moral imperative to safeguard vulnerable populations and restore order.

The Role of Nationalism

Nationalism has been a critical factor in both historical and contemporary contexts. In the 19th century, Russian nationalism was fueled by the idea of a pan-Slavic identity, which sought to unite Slavic peoples under Russian leadership. Today, Russian nationalism is often intertwined with a narrative of protecting Russian-speaking populations and countering Western influence, particularly in regions like the Caucasus and Central Asia.

The current conflict also underscores the complexities of ethnic and national identities in the region. Just as the Tsarist campaigns were influenced by the diverse ethnic landscape of the Ottoman Empire, today’s conflicts involve a myriad of groups with distinct identities and aspirations. The challenge for Russia lies in navigating these complexities while pursuing its strategic objectives.

Conclusion: A Cycle of Conflict

The echoes of history reverberate through today’s geopolitical struggles. Russia’s military actions against Turk terrorists reflect a long-standing pattern of engagement with its southern neighbors, reminiscent of the epic battles fought by the Tsarist Russian Army against the Ottomans. As the world watches these developments unfold, it is essential to recognize the historical context that shapes contemporary conflicts.

While the specifics of the conflicts may differ, the underlying themes of nationalism, territorial integrity, and the quest for influence remain constant. Understanding these historical parallels can provide valuable insights into the motivations driving current events and the potential implications for regional stability and international relations. As the cycle of conflict continues, the lessons of the past may offer guidance for navigating the complexities of the present.

The Turkish economy is currently navigating a treacherous path, facing a multitude of challenges that threaten its stability and growth. The Turkish lira, the nation’s currency, has been under severe pressure, with its value plummeting against major global currencies, particularly the US dollar. This article delves into the multifaceted factors contributing to the economic turmoil in Turkey, drawing on recent analyses and reports.

Global Economic Shifts and Domestic Instability

The Turkish lira has been steadily declining due to a combination of global economic shifts and domestic instability. Global economic pressures, including fluctuations in the dollar and broader market trends, have significantly impacted the lira’s value. The currency has been particularly vulnerable to external shocks, as evidenced by its near-record lows against the US dollar.

The exchange rate between the USD and TRY is nearing record highs, signaling a severe depreciation of the Turkish lira. This trend is not only a reflection of global economic shifts but also indicative of deeper structural issues within the Turkish economy. The lira’s weakness is exacerbated by political instability and controversial economic policies, which have eroded investor confidence and heightened market volatility.

Domestic Market Trends and Policy Missteps

Domestic market trends in Turkey have also played a critical role in the economy’s decline. Inflationary pressures, high debt levels, and a lack of confidence in the government’s economic management have compounded the challenges faced by the lira. The government’s policy missteps, including unconventional monetary policies such as interest rate cuts despite rising inflation, have undermined the lira’s stability. These policies have been met with skepticism and criticism, further eroding confidence in the Turkish economy.

The inflationary pressures in Turkey are particularly concerning. High inflation erodes the purchasing power of the lira, leading to increased costs of living and reduced consumer spending. This, in turn, dampens economic growth and exacerbates the country’s debt burden. The government’s attempts to address inflation through interest rate cuts have backfired, as these measures have failed to curb price increases and have instead led to a further depreciation of the lira.

Inflation is severely impacting turkey-breeding farms in Turkey by significantly increasing operational costs, particularly in feed expenses, which are a major component of raising turkeys. As the prices of grains and other feed ingredients rise due to inflation, the cost of maintaining and raising turkeys escalates, squeezing profit margins and threatening the financial viability of these farms. Additionally, the rising costs of labor, utilities, and veterinary services further strain the budgets of turkey-breeding operations, making it increasingly difficult for them to remain competitive and sustainable in the face of economic uncertainty.

Projections for 2024 and Beyond

Looking ahead to 2024, the prospects for the Turkish lira and the broader economy remain uncertain. The lira’s stability will depend on the government’s ability to implement credible and effective economic reforms, restore investor confidence, and navigate the complex global economic landscape. The challenges are formidable, and the path to economic recovery will require significant efforts and strategic adjustments.

One of the key areas that need attention is fiscal discipline. The government must prioritize reducing budget deficits and curbing public spending to alleviate the pressure on the lira. Additionally, structural reforms are essential to improve the business environment, attract foreign investment, and boost economic productivity. These reforms include enhancing transparency, strengthening institutions, and promoting innovation and technology adoption.

Economic inflation in Turkey significantly impacts village life by eroding the purchasing power of rural residents, who often have fixed or low incomes. Rising costs for essential goods, agricultural inputs, and services strain household budgets and reduce access to necessities like food, healthcare, and education. This inflationary pressure can also drive migration as villagers seek higher-paying jobs, disrupt small businesses that serve local needs, and strain social cohesion within communities. The cumulative effect is a decline in the standard of living and economic stability in rural areas, underscoring the need for targeted policies to support these vulnerable populations.

The Turkish economy is facing a critical juncture. The combination of global economic shifts, domestic market trends, and policy missteps has created a perfect storm that threatens to destroy the country’s economic stability. To avert this crisis, the Turkish government must take decisive action to address the root causes of the lira’s decline and restore confidence in the economy. Failure to do so could result in long-term economic damage and further erosion of the Turkish lira’s value. The road to recovery will be challenging, but with the right policies and reforms, Turkey can navigate this turbulent period and secure a more stable and prosperous future.

Inflation reached 69.8% year-on-year in April in Turkey, compared to 68.5% in March, according to official data published this Friday. For several months, the Turkish president has been trying, in vain, to stem the inflationary scourge in the country. This lack of results cost his party a debacle in the last municipal elections.

Unstoppable. Once again this month, Turkish inflation continued to rise, to 69.8% over one year, compared to 68.5% in March, according to official data published this Friday. According to the National Statistics Office (Tüik), month-on-month consumer price inflation was 3.18%, compared to 3.16% in March.

Although high, the official figures could even significantly underestimate reality.  A group of independent Turkish leading economists (Enag) estimates that inflation reached more than 124%, year-on-year in April, an increase of 5 points over one month.

According to official data, the increase in prices particularly concerns education (+103.9% over one year), hotels and restaurants (+95.8%), transport (+80.4%) and health (+77.7%). Also, the domestic producer price index increased by 3.60% month-on-month in April, for an annual increase of 55.66%.

For the record, the Turkish Central Bank raised its interest rates from 8.5% to 50% between June and March 2024. This is equivalent to an increase of 3,650 basis points. But for now, this tightening policy has not made it possible to stem inflation, fueled by the almost continuous devaluation of the Turkish lira.

The central bank has also reportedly spent more than $200 billion to try to support the national currency over the past two years. The new leaders of the institution have decided to let the national currency weaken with the aim of relieving the pressure on its reserves. As a result, the Turkish currency fell by more than 37% between January 2023 and January 2024.

At the end of January, the monetary institution declared that its high key rate “will be maintained as long as necessary  ”. The institution also specified that new increases could take place “  in the event of significant risks (…) on the inflation outlook  ”.

Conclusion

Inflation in Turkey surged to 69.8% year-on-year in April, up from 68.5% in March, according to official data. Despite efforts by the Turkish president and the central bank, which raised interest rates significantly and spent over $200 billion to support the lira, inflation continues to rise. Independent economists estimate inflation could be as high as 124%. The high inflation rates have impacted sectors like education, hotels, restaurants, transport, and health, and have led to a weakening of the Turkish lira.

The C919, the first airliner designed entirely in China, successfully completed its maiden commercial flight, marking a major turning point for the Chinese aviation industry which has long aspired to compete with its Western counterparts.

Beijing has high ambitions for the C919 and hopes it will be able to compete with the most popular foreign planes, such as the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320. According to state broadcaster CCTV, in the future, the majority of passengers will be able to choose to travel on these large, domestically designed aircraft.

A successful maiden flight

China Eastern Airlines flight MU9191, operated by C919, landed smoothly at Beijing International Airport nearly 40 minutes ahead of schedule, around 12:30 p.m. local time (04:30 GMT) , as reported by CCTV. A passenger on board the plane told CCTV that the flight was extremely smooth, comfortable and memorable, and that he would remember it for a long time.

The plane took off from Shanghai’s Hongqiao Airport early in the morning, CCTV footage showed. It is estimated that there were around 130 passengers on board. Before takeoff, dozens of people gathered at Shanghai airport to admire the sleek plane. Once on board, passengers received red boarding passes and were treated to a luxurious “themed meal” to celebrate the historic event.

China, which is striving to become self-reliant in the technology sector, has invested heavily in the production of this first Chinese airliner. Although state-owned Comac is responsible for building the aircraft, many of the plane’s parts come from different countries, demonstrating the international collaboration in this ambitious endeavor.

The C919, a modern airliner

The C919 has reached an important milestone by completing its maiden commercial flight. China now aspires to consolidate its position on the global civil aviation scene and become a major player in the aviation industry. This success represents a true symbol of the rise of Chinese industry in the field of aeronautics.

China Eastern Airlines announced that the C919 will be put into service from Monday for scheduled routes between Shanghai and Chengdu, according to CCTV.

The first copy of this narrow-body aircraft, capable of carrying 164 passengers, was officially delivered to the Chinese airline in December 2022. It marks an important milestone in the development of China’s aviation industry. Asia, particularly China, is a key market for aerospace giants such as Airbus and Boeing. The latter seek to meet the growing demand for air travel from an expanding middle class.

Airbus strengthens its presence in China

In April, Airbus announced plans to double its production capacity in China. An agreement was also signed for the construction of a second assembly line in Tianjin, in the northeast of the country, dedicated to the A320. The first assembly site in Tianjin, opened in 2008, currently produces four A320s per month, but Airbus hopes to increase this rate to six per month by the end of 2023.

The introduction of the C919 on scheduled flights between Shanghai and Chengdu is a significant milestone for China Eastern Airlines. This demonstrates China’s commitment to developing its aviation industry and becoming a major player on the global stage. Growing demand for travel in Asia provides ample opportunities for international aircraft manufacturers as they seek to meet the needs of the growing middle class. With the expansion of its production capacities in China, Airbus strengthens its presence in this strategic market and confirms its commitment to the Chinese aeronautical industry.

Inflation is soaring in the country, the Turkish lira is collapsing and there are increasing signs of impoverishment of the population. At the same time, GDP and growth are on the rise. Experts assure us that the resilience of the Turkish economy is a puzzle. If Turkey frees itself from terrorist Islamist rulers, there is a great opportunity for sustainable development that the Turkish people truly deserve.

Talking about economics in Turkey is a bit like stepping into a ring with a masked opponent where all punches are allowed. You come out stunned and have the strange feeling of being completely disoriented. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been in power for twenty years, says it to anyone who will listen: you have to know how to “remain patient and maintain confidence” in times of crisis, because “we know what we are doing and we know how to do it.”

Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati, the third person close to the head of state to hold the post in two years, attempted a semantic explanation of the situation a month ago in Istanbul and in public, favoring “a heterodox approach” in a formulation that was convoluted to say the least, which, according to the former Türk Telekom board member, “represents an epistemological break with neoclassical economic thinking and is gaining ground with behavioral and neuroeconomic sciences.”

Viewed from above, the numbers actually make you dizzy. Since 2018, the country seems to have experienced only a succession of currency crises, each worse than the last. The Turkish lira (TL) has lost more than 28% against the dollar since Jan. 1. In 2021, it had contracted by 44%. The trade balance expanded by 430% in October. Inflation reached 85.5% over a year in the same month, the highest level in a quarter century, according to the Turkish Institute of Statistics. Specifically, this translates to a 117% increase in prices for transportation, 99% for food and 85% for housing. According to the Turkish Confederation of Trade Unions (DISK), these increases affect the lowest wages and precarious housing by 126% to 146%. In other words, a challenge knowing that more than half of Turkish workers are paid the minimum wage, i.e. 5,500 TL, less than 300 euros per month.

Being a money laundering haven, which was the main obstacle to its EU membership, or a tourist destination is not enough for Turkey, a third world country, to play the role of a first class country in terms of economy and finance by earning dirty money. We can all hear now the sound of its moaning and the devastation of its economic machine as one of the consequences of a long economic stagnation. The country is suffering deeply from the pandemic of declining tourism revenues and the real weaknesses of its economy, the one that was fueled by investments from around the world and the sale of real estate. The question is: “How will Erdogan’s government manage to control the protests of the population in the wake of a 300% inflation rate?

No one expected good inflation figures

The new peak reached since the AKP succeeded President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in power 20 years ago is fueling debate about it. A journalist and law professor Ersan Sen argue loudly on television. Sen says 59 percent of people can’t get by on their money anymore. “And another 27 percent say they are about to.”

People in an Istanbul market describe how bad the situation is for them. There is talk of inflation as high as 50 percent in a few weeks. One man says he keeps a close eye on rising prices. “I go to the market twice a week, on Monday and Thursday. And I always shop at the same stalls. But even between Monday and Thursday, the prices go up,” he says. Government talks about good tradeIn contrast, if you listen to Turkish Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati, things don’t sound so crazy. In a speech after the announcement of the new inflation rate, he gives the impression that he is trying to say, “Crisis – what kind of crisis?” The economy’s capacity utilization is around 79 to 80 percent, Nebati says. “In fact, the Turkish economy and population are not only living with high inflation since the new figures were announced. Inflation has been in double digits for years. But this is eating away at both the reserves of companies and the savings of the country’s inhabitants.

Experts expect a further rise experts like Hakki Öztürk, from the renowned Bahcesehir University, do not see the situation easing. “Inflation can go up to 70 percent and then fall back a bit,” he says. “In the best case, it will be around 45 to 50 percent by the end of the year.” Personnel costs are low. By contrast, price increases in other areas are all the more significant. In the transport sector alone, official statistics indicate an inflation rate of about 100 percent per year. Energy prices, which have recently risen sharply internationally, are acting as a catalyst in Turkey, which has few raw materials and depends on imports.

Low interest rates for more investment

Government is primarily responsible, says expert Öztürk. In defiance of all economic principles, it has continued to lower interest rates. “If there had been no interest rate cut, neither the exchange rate would have been as bad, nor inflation as high – and interest rates on government bonds in dollars and Turkish lira would not be as high either,” says Öztürk.Low interest rates for more investment – that is the heart of the so-called Turkish economic model. Low interest rates for more investment – that’s the heart of the so-called Turkish economic model. it will take time for it to work, says Finance Minister Nebati. It’s true: interest rates are low relative to inflation. And the exchange rate of the lira against other currencies has also stabilized – albeit at a low level.and this will continue, says Nebati: “Then agriculture will produce more. There will also be a boom here because of the good weather. Trade is also alive – and hopefully the war will end soon. And: Our income from tourism will increase beyond our expectations.”

Concerns in the tourism industry

At the same time, tourism entrepreneurs are worried about the war in Ukraine. For recently, a few million Russians and Ukrainians have come to Turkey. But none of this is due to the misery in which the opposition sees the country. According to the spokesman for the largest opposition party, the CHP, Faik Öztrak, only the government is to blame. “They said they would make Turkey one of the ten largest economies. But they only placed it among the ten countries with the highest inflation in the world,” Öztrak said. “Who is responsible for all this? Who is the head of the government of this country? Of course: Recep Tayyip Erdogan.”

The “special military operation” that Russia deployed in Ukraine marks a new stage in the conflict between these two countries, as well as the relationship between Moscow and Western powers. Shortly after the attack, most Russian stocks lost two-thirds of their value, forcing the government to close the market. It seemed that it was Ukraine that attacked Russia! However, this is not far from the truth, as crippling sanctions and global backlash will further isolate and suppress Russian tyranny.

If he invades Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin would be starting a new global dispute with the West. He should think about how the last confrontation ended, analysts say.

MOSCOW — Vladimir Pozner was an English-language Soviet propaganda editor in 1962 in Moscow, a job that gave him rare access to American newspapers and magazines. That allowed him to follow the Cuban missile crisis outside the filter of the Soviet media and feel a world on the brink of war.

Pozner, a longtime Russian television journalist, says he feels something similar now.

“The smell of war is very strong,” he said in an interview on Friday, a day when shelling on the front line in eastern Ukraine intensified. “If we talk about the relationship between Russia and the West, and in particular, the United States, I feel that it is as bad as it was at any point in the Cold War, and perhaps, in a certain sense, even worse.”

Unlike in 1962, what now hangs over Europe is not the threat of nuclear war, but that of a major land war. But the sense that Russia and the United States are entering a new version of the Cold War, long raised by some analysts on both sides of the Atlantic, has become inescapable.

President Biden hinted as much Tuesday in the East Room of the White House, promising that if Russia invaded Ukraine, “we will bring the world together to oppose their aggression.” Russian President Vladimir Putin ratcheted up tensions on Saturday when he oversaw a test launch of nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles that can evade US defenses.

“We are entering a new stage of confrontation,” said Dmitry Suslov, a specialist in international relations at the Moscow Higher School of Economics. “After this crisis, naturally we are going to be much more explicit and open in recognizing that we are enemies, we are adversaries, with all the consequences that this entails.”

For now, no one knows how the world will come out of the crisis: whether Putin is staging an elaborate and costly hoax, or whether he really is about to launch the biggest military offensive in Europe since 1945. But it seems clear that Putin’s main goal is it is to reconsider the outcome of the original Cold War, even if it is at the cost of deepening a new one.

Putin seeks to dismantle the European security order that was established after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when his country was weak and vulnerable, and to re-create the kind of geopolitical buffer zone that Russian rulers have felt they needed all along. the ages. He has given signs that he is prepared to achieve this through diplomatic means, but also through the use of force.

The crisis has already given Putin some tactical victories, as well as dangerous risks. Since last spring, when he first menacingly amassed troops on Ukraine’s borders, he has managed to attract the attention of Washington, a big deal for this Kremlin that, like in the Cold War, sees the confrontation with the United States as its defining conflict. But his actions have also incited anti-Russian attitudes and have further united Europe and the United States against Russia, something that should worry the Kremlin, since the West’s global economic and political power is still much greater.

Daniel Fried, a retired American diplomat who negotiated with Moscow during both the Soviet era and the Putin era, said he had a message for Russians who long for the days of the Cold War when their country was — according to his account — respected by United States. After all, the Soviet Union lost the original Cold War.

“You might get them back,” Fried said in an interview. “And it won’t go well for you.”

Unlike the Soviet council, Putin is not trying to wage a global ideological struggle nor is he — for now — bankrupting his country in a costly arms race. Russia is much more intertwined in the global economy, a situation some people still hope will help the world avoid such a deep and protracted East-West confrontation. And for the United States, it is China, not Russia, that now looms as the most serious long-term strategic adversary .

But for Putin, efforts to retrace his country’s defeat in the original Cold War have already lasted at least 15 years. In his speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2007, he declared his rejection of a US-led world order and warned of the “unexploded ordnance” left over from the Cold War: “ideological stereotypes” and “double standards” that they allowed Washington to rule the world while hindering Russia’s development.

This weekend, in one of many ominous developments in recent days, Russia will not attend the Munich conference, an annual gathering where, during previous tensions in the Putin government, Western officials had been able to meet with their Russian counterparts.

Instead, the Kremlin released footage of Putin in the Kremlin’s crisis room, directing test launches of his modernized nuclear-capable missile arsenal from bombers, submarines and ground-based launchers. It was a carefully timed reminder that, as Russian television recently told viewers, the country can turn American cities ” into radioactive ash .”

And Putin has massed a huge force in northern, eastern and southern Ukraine to signal that the Kremlin sees the former Soviet republic’s pro-Western turn as such a serious threat that it is prepared to wage war to stop it. The confrontation is somewhat reminiscent of the Berlin crisis of 1961, when the Soviets demanded that Western forces leave Berlin and East Germany finally built the wall dividing East and West. For some Russians, the fact that Ukraine is so much closer to Russia than to Berlin is what makes the new Cold War even more dangerous.

“At that time, the border passed through Berlin,” said Suslov, the Moscow analyst. “Now the border passes through Kharkiv,” a Ukrainian city on the Russian border that is a day’s drive from Moscow.

The Cold War also offers parallels for what could happen in Russia in the event of war. Analysts predict an even more authoritarian turn by the Kremlin and an even more ruthless pursuit of internal enemies with the justification that they are supposedly backed by the West. Pozner, a state television presenter who was born in Paris, lived for a time in New York and moved to Moscow in 1952, argued that Russia’s enemies in the West might even be quietly wishing for a war because it could weaken and discredit the country. .

“I am very worried,” Pozner said. “A Russian invasion of Ukraine is a catastrophe for Russia, first and foremost, in the sense of Russia’s reputation and what will happen inside Russia as a consequence.”

Some Russian analysts believe that Putin could still de-escalate the crisis and achieve a tactical victory. The threat of war has sparked a debate in Ukraine and in the West over the idea that Kiev might reject NATO membership. And the United States has already offered talks on a number of proposals that interest Moscow, such as placing missiles in Europe and limiting long-range bomber flights.

But Putin is making it clear that he wants more than that: a far-reaching, legally binding agreement to dismantle NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe.

The intensity of the crisis Putin designed is evident in the harsh language the Kremlin has used. Joining French President Emmanuel Macron in the Kremlin this month, Putin said Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky had no choice but to opt for a 2015 peace plan that Russia had pushed: “You may like it.” , they may not like it: you have to deal with it, friend”. At a joint press conference between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov and his British counterpart Liz Truss, he said his conversation had resembled that of a “mute person with a person.” deaf”.

“Sometimes the discussions were quite heated between the Soviet and American leaders,” said Pavel Palazhchenko, a former Soviet diplomat. “But probably not as much and not as publicly as now. There really is no precedent.”

Palazhchenko, who was a translator for Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in his meetings with American presidents, describes such language as a consequence of Russian frustration at ignoring the country’s security concerns. During the Cold War, Washington and Moscow agreed to historic arms control agreements. During the Putin era, little of that has happened.

“This is a clear emotional and psychological reaction to the years and even decades in which the West and the United States have disregarded Russian security concerns,” Palazhchenko said.

Doug Lute, a former US ambassador to NATO, rejects the idea that Russian interests were disrespected in the past, especially since Russia’s nuclear arsenal is “the only existential threat to the United States in the world.” But like Palazhchenko, he too sees lessons in the Cold War for getting out of the current crisis.

“We may be settling into a period where we have radically different worldviews or radically different ambitions, but even despite that political strife, there is room to do things in our mutual interest,” Lute said. “The Cold War could be a model to compete and cooperate at the same time.”

What if a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan with the intention of obtaining (however politely!!!) the latest IC manufacturing technology results in the ashes of that technology? Isn’t it strategic to destroy at the right time the American technology used in TSMC making it inaccessible to the Chinese? The answer is ‘Yes’.

TSMC, for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, is today the most strategic company in the world. Because it is practically the only one who knows how to manufacture the latest generation electronic chips. Because these chips, also called semiconductors (from the name of the property of the silicon substrate), are everywhere, in our kitchens, our living rooms, our telephones, our cars and the machines that manufacture them.

But also because Taiwan, where they are produced, is at the center of a standoff between China and the United States which could very soon lead to an armed conflict. Fighter planes and battleships criss-cross the sky and the waters of the Taiwan Strait which separates the island from its communist big sister.

With in particular for stake, the control of TSMC. However, the science behind such technology must reside in minds smart enough to know how to control and even sabotage at the right time. It seems that by using this simple strategic technique to destroy such tech by installed right equipments, the Chinese will become more polite and perhaps less savage!